debor046

Updated at 7:40 p.m. : The high temperature for Thursday was 100 degrees F in Columbia, 4 degrees above the forecast.  New information indicates that the high for Friday would most likely be 106 degrees.  Our internal computer model is projecting 107 for Friday and 108 for Saturday.  Therefore, it is possible that the all-time record high could be broken on either of those days.  It will be an interesting weekend. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Forecast on Wednesday, June 27.  Image Credit: WLTX. The last two summers have each been the hottest on record.  This year is not shaping up to be hotter than the previous two, but it may still make the record book.  The computer models all week have been projecting that the heat wave in the central part of the country would expand east and would be focused over the Carolinas by Friday.  Much of eastern Colorado and...

Conditions were looking bleak at the beginning of May.   Only four months of above normal rainfall had occurred in the previous 28 months.   The details can be found in a previous blog post (here) .   Much of the state was in a drought and the situation was getting worse. Two events happened to change the course of the drought.   First, Tropical Depression Beryl brought much needed rain to parts of the drought-stricken Midlands.   However, there were still areas that received little rain.   This was soon followed by an upper-level pattern that brought copious amounts of rain to the Southeast, especially along parts of the central Gulf coast.   It eventually made its way to South Carolina bringing an abundance of rain.   More than 8 inches of rain fell in just four weeks in the Columbia area.   The result has been flooding of some of the creeks in the area. Flooding of the Rocky Branch Creek closed the intersection of Main St. and Whaley St. ...

After unending rains since June 7, 2012, many areas along the Florida Panhandle and Alabama coast are submerged in flood waters. The NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center estimates that Pensacola received up to 27" of rain since Thursday. Similar rain amounts were also recorded in Mobile. This image sums all of the rainfall data from June 7-11, 2012 from NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Observed rainfall for June 7-11.  Click on image for a larger version.  Image Credit: NOAA\AHPS. The surge of moisture began to ride over a stationary front along the central Gulf coast.   Waves of storms pounded the area which moved to the northeast over the weekend.   This brought some much needed rain to drought-stricken areas of the Southeast, but left parts of Pensacola and Mobile flooded. It is interesting that this extreme rain event was not the result of a tropical storm, but rather a stationary front with an approaching weak upper-level disturbance. ...

I am frequently disappointed when I read articles or editorials claiming that human-caused warming of the planet is not happening or that climate science is wrong.  Such disappointment occurred recently as I read an editorial from Investor’s Business Daily (IBD). The national newspaper covers international business, finance, and the global economy.  Its editorials are by its own admission conservative.  I use the paper for the detailed information on companies and have used it for over two decades.  It is a good source for financial information, but a poor source for science information. An online editorial entitled “Facts Get In The Way-Again-Of A Good Global Warming Story” can be viewed here .  The editorial is meant to criticize a recent trip by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.  The editorial begins “Hillary Clinton made a well-publicized trip last week to the Arctic to see for herself the impact of global warming. Less well known, however, are two ...

The Atlantic Basin has the most variable hurricane activity in the world and thus has become a challenge for meteorologists.   There seems to be a fascination with knowing what the season will be like, even if you can’t forecast where they may strike. The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has been making forecasts of the Atlantic hurricane seasons for the past 29 years.   It explains the need to forecast hurricane seasons this way: “We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. This is not always true for individual seasons. It is...