I'm Dreaming of a Dry Christmas



Most people in South Carolina usually dream of a white Christmas.  There have been so few times that it has happened in this area.  In fact Climate Central did the calculations and the chances are less that 1% of seeing a white Christmas in Columbia.  Where is the best place to be?  See the map below:

The chance of seeing a white Christmas across the U.S.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

Even though the map shows the historical odds of a white Christmas, the actual amount of snow in a given location can vary a lot from year to year due to natural weather variations.  For example, this year, U.S. snow cover in mid-December was the largest it’s been in a decade.  Outside the U.S., it’s worth noting that Siberia, generally one of the coldest places on Earth for this time of year, had a scorching November with temperatures up to 14°F higher than normal.  That warm trend has continued into December, leaving a "snow shortage".  We can identify with a snow shortage.


The graphic below shows the warmest, coldest, wettest, and the whitest Christmas on record for Columbia.  A Climate Central analysis found that winter is the fastest-warming season in the U.S. over the last 100 years.  That's in step with the global increase in temperatures caused primarily by heat-trapping greenhouse gases.  While climate change is causing winters to warm overall, temperatures on a single day such as Christmas (or any other day of the year) can show large variability—coming in much colder, or much warmer, in a given year than the overall trend would suggest.  Christmas will definitely feel like winter this year.

The extremes of Christmas Day in Columbia, SC.  Click on the image for a larger version.  Image Credit: Climate Central.

So why am I dreaming of a dry Christmas?

It turns out the rain has fallen for the past eight Christmas Days (see table below).  Think of it, if you have a child less than nine years of age, they have never seen a dry Christmas Day.  What a bummer!  Santa brings certain toys, but you can’t go out a play with them.  How about the tradition of playing some sport with friends after the Christmas meal (if your big meal is midday), which has not been a good idea of late.

Year
Christmas Day Rainfall
2005
0.49”
2006
0.89”
2007
0.10”
2008
0.08”
2009
3.06”
2010
0.07”
2011
0.17”
2012
0.16”

Interestingly it has rained 48 times on Christmas Day in the past 125 years of records. This year Mother Nature is sending us a hard freeze for Christmas morning.  However, it will be a dry cold; the first dry Christmas since 2004.  Enjoy!

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